Source
Preserve the source
Public interviews and videos are monitored, queued, and preserved with the original source attached.
Methodology
How WhoNailedIt scores public calls.
WhoNailedIt tracks public macro predictions, keeps the source attached, and scores only calls that have enough evidence to evaluate. The goal is a useful accountability record, not investment advice.
How it works
From source to score.
The same workflow behind the public scoreboards, adapted here to show what counts, what waits, and what stays out of the denominator.
Extract
Pull out the calls
Specific predictions are timestamped and mapped to speakers, topics, assets, regions, and timeframes.
Verify
Check against reality
Resolved calls are checked against public evidence and market data when the outcome can be evaluated.
Score
Average the record
Final verdicts become points, then points are averaged across people, videos, topics, and themes.
Accuracy Formula
Accuracy is calculated as total scored points divided by the number of resolved predictions. Open, pending, queued, unverified, unverifiable, and verifier-error states are excluded.
| Verdict | Points | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Correct | 1.00 | The forecast clearly happened. |
| Mostly Correct | 0.75 | The core call was right, with material caveats. |
| Partially Correct | 0.50 | The call was directionally or conditionally right, but incomplete. |
| Mostly Wrong | 0.00 | The call missed in the important ways. |
| Wrong | 0.00 | The forecast clearly did not happen. |
Important Limitations
WhoNailedIt is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on WhoNailedIt is financial, investment, trading, legal, tax, or other professional advice, and nothing should be treated as a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or follow any asset, security, strategy, person, or prediction.
Scores, labels, market data, model outputs, summaries, and commentary may be incomplete, delayed, inaccurate, or wrong, and are provided as-is without warranties. To the maximum extent permitted by law, WhoNailedIt and its operators are not liable for any losses, damages, or claims arising from use of, or reliance on, the site. You are solely responsible for your own decisions and should consult qualified professionals before acting on financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional matters.
Corrections
Scoring can be revised when better evidence, context, or source material is found. To flag an issue, send the prediction link and the source material to [email protected].